Blair, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

762
FXUS63 KOAX 220734
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
134 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue into the weekend, with highs
  reaching the 30s and 40s today, 40s and 50s on Sunday, and
  potentially the 50s into the low 60s on Monday and Tuesday.

- The next notable chance for precipitation occurs Tuesday night
  into Wednesday (25% chance), with rain the predominate precipitation
  type.

- Above average temperatures (highs in the 50s to low 60s) will
  continue through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Short Term (Today and Sunday)

Another chilly morning is underway, with lows in the positive single
digits and wind chills generally in the negative single digits.
However, temperatures this morning are a notable 10 to 20 degrees
warmer than yesterday`s. The warming trend will continue
through the weekend as a thermal ridge over the western CONUS
builds eastward into the central Plains, increasing warm air
advection.

At the surface, southerly flow will shift to zonal later this
morning, bringing downslope warming and pushing highs in to the 30s
to low 40s. By Sunday, highs will climb further into the 40s to
low 50s. We`ll need to monitor the potential for patchy
snowpack fog over the next few morning, particularly in low-
lying areas.

Long Term (Monday and Beyond)

Zonal to northwesterly upper-level flow will dominate much of the
upcoming week, with a series of shortwave disturbances moving
through. Above-average temperatures will persist through the
workweek. By Monday, areas with minimal snowpack in northeast and
southeast NE should see full melting, allowing highs to reach the
60s. However, lingering snowpack in east-central NE and west-central
IA will likely keep highs in the 50s until the remaining
snowpack finishes melting away.

The first shortwave is expected to track southeast across the
Dakotas and into western IA on Monday. Moisture will be limited,
with the highest QPF axis remaining to the northeast, keeping PoPs
under 15%. By Tuesday, as snowpack becomes negligible, highs will be
more uniform across the area, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.

A stronger shortwave will move across the northern and central
Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a better chance of
precipitation. PoPs peak at 25% in northeast NE, increasing further
northeast. Light rain is expected, though a light wintry mix cannot
be ruled out in northeast NE during the overnight period. This
system will also drive a cold front through the area early
Wednesday, dropping highs slightly into the low 50s. Behind the
front, gusty northwesterly winds will persist into Wednesday
afternoon.

For the remainder of the workweek, highs will range from the low 50s
to the low 60s, roughly 10 to 15 degrees above the climatological
average. The Elkhorn and Platte rivers will need monitoring for
ice jams this week as the recent cold snap increased ice
thickness. With temperatures on the rise, ice breakup is
expected, keeping the Ice Jam Risk Indicator in the elevated
category.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
remain out of the south at 8 to 12 kts at KOMA and KLNK. KOFK
will be slower to decrease, dropping below 12kts closer to 07Z
tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...KG